The European transport industry stands at a crossroads. On one hand, there is growing political and regulatory pressure to move away from combustion engines. On the other hand, the operational and financial reality makes electric trucks an unprofitable choice for most transport companies. What’s more, the current situation may lead to rising operational costs for traditional diesel trucks – and this could affect all of us: from hauliers to the end consumer.

1. Current State – Where Are We with E-Trucks?

Despite the media hype and political declarations, electric trucks have not yet entered everyday use in Europe. Yes, models from brands like Volvo, Scania, and Mercedes appear in test and pilot programs. Some large companies – like IKEA or DHL – are trying to implement e-fleets in urban deliveries. But these are exceptions, not the rule.

Why? Because the cost of one electric truck can exceed 1 million PLN. Add to that the need to build charging infrastructure, train drivers, adjust routes and the entire schedule. In return, the operator gets a vehicle with a limited range (usually 300–400 km) and long “refueling” (charging) times.

In long-distance transport – which dominates in Poland – it simply doesn’t add up.

2. Economics Are Clear: Diesel Still Pays Off

Contrary to the narrative of politicians and activists, the traditional diesel truck remains the most efficient and cost-effective workhorse. Fuel – despite taxes – is still relatively affordable. Infrastructure is in place. Mechanics know the technology. Used vehicles have residual value. All this keeps diesel dominant on the roads.

But that may change.

3. Politics and Fees: Growing Pressure on Diesel

Since the energy transition is moving slower than expected, EU decision-makers may target diesel trucks in other ways. We are already seeing announcements of:

• Higher tolls and road charges (like e-TOLL) for combustion vehicles
• New environmental taxes
• Bans on diesel trucks entering city centers
• Tougher Euro 7 emission standards – costly to implement

All of this may lead to a real increase in operating costs. Not because diesel has become less efficient, but because it will be deliberately “discouraged” through regulations.

4. Electrification – Only for the Few?

Let’s be honest: today, only a few can afford electric trucks. Typically, these are companies:

• With their own logistics infrastructure
• Operating on short urban routes
• With significant capital and access to subsidies
• Building a “green image” as a marketing value

For the average haulier operating international routes between Poland, Germany, and France, an e-truck is a pipe dream. The problem is not just the price, but also charging time, range, lack of public chargers, and an underdeveloped service network.

5. Will Diesel Costs Increase? It’s Possible

If electrification doesn’t accelerate, and politicians continue pushing for ambitious climate targets, we can expect:

• Gradual increases in excise and fuel taxes on diesel
• Reduction of exemptions and reliefs for international transport
• Introduction of emission charges or caps for companies

In the long run, this could make diesel no longer the best technical option – not due to its performance, but because of artificial regulatory pressure.

6. What About Hydrogen or Synthetic Fuels?

There’s increasing talk about alternatives – like hydrogen, e-fuels (synthetic diesel), and biomethane. These could serve as a bridge between diesel and full electrification. But they share one common trait: they are still in development and cost significantly more than diesel.

They also require new infrastructure, certification, and vehicle adaptation. And most importantly – they are not yet widely available.

7. What Can Hauliers Do?

For now, a reasonable strategy might include:

• Monitoring the market and testing new solutions (e.g. hybrids, biofuels)
• Replacing fleet with newer diesel trucks (Euro 6 and above)
• Focusing on efficiency: eco-driving, route optimization, telematics
• Analyzing possible subsidies and pilot projects (e.g. NFOŚiGW programs)

Diesel still holds up – but upcoming legislative changes may quickly shift the balance.

8. Summary – A Time for Caution, Not Haste

The transport industry must once again operate under uncertainty. Electric trucks are too expensive, while climate policy is tightening the screws on diesel. Caution is crucial – and no investment, in either direction, should be made without thorough analysis.

The future may be hydrogen. It may be e-fuels. But we cannot say with certainty that diesel will be “safe” for the next 10 years. Nor can we write it off – because for now, it remains the only realistic option for most transport companies.